Democrats have been telling anyone who will listen that Texas is finally in play this fall.
Chuck Schumer was banking on flipping a Senate seat that would hand him power.
And what Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) said to a national reporter about James Talarico’s chances left the left scrambling to explain it away.
Crockett Says the Quiet Part Out Loud
NBC News reporter Sahil Kapur caught up with Crockett recently in St. Louis — where she was attending a primary night party for a Missouri race, not exactly stumping for the man who beat her in the Texas primary — and asked her point-blank whether Talarico could turn Texas blue this fall.
“I don’t know,” she said.
She went further. Crockett told Kapur she doesn’t trust the polls, pointing out that Texas surveys have historically overstated Democrats’ prospects. Then she got to the part that had Democrat Twitter melting down.
“I watch money,” she said. “When I look at the money, if Republicans start spending money in Texas, then I’ll be convinced. But right now, national Republicans decided they wanted to dump money into North Carolina, as well as Georgia. That’s where they’re fighting, and national Democrats have not decided to dump money into Texas either.”
She kept going. “I look at: where does the NRSC stand? Where does DSCC stand? Right now, neither one are investing, which tells me that their internals are saying the same thing.”
That last line is the one that stings. Crockett wasn’t just being coy. She was reading the internal signals the way any seasoned political observer would — and concluding that both parties’ campaign arms have looked at Texas and decided to spend their money somewhere else. When the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee won’t cut a check, that tells you something.
Some Democrats on social media accused Crockett of wanting Talarico to fail so she could say she was the better candidate. That’s probably a little too cute. The more straightforward explanation is that she gave an honest answer, and her party isn’t used to those.
Who Is James Talarico, Anyway
Talarico, 36, is a former middle school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian who defeated Crockett in the March 2026 Democrat primary to become the party’s nominee against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
But the man Democrats are counting on to end a 32-year Republican winning streak in Texas statewide races comes loaded with baggage that doesn’t play well outside Austin.
Talarico made headlines in 2021 when he declared on the Texas House floor that “God is both masculine and feminine and everything in between. God is nonbinary.” He doubled down on the remark during a CNN appearance, insisting it wasn’t theologically controversial — then redirected blame to the Apostle Paul. That’s a tough sell in a state where nearly 70 percent of adults identify as Christian.
And it doesn’t stop there. Talarico recently told a church crowd in DeSoto that the New Testament essentially mandates government-run healthcare, arguing the country should “finish the work of President Obama” and pass a federal public option. He wants to let every American buy into Medicare regardless of age, expand the Affordable Care Act, and reverse Trump administration cuts to ACA subsidies, Medicare, and Medicaid. Invoking Jesus to sell government-run healthcare to a Texas congregation is a strategy, sure. Whether it’s a winning one is another matter entirely.
Now Talarico has a different kind of problem. According to a joint investigation by ProPublica and The Texas Tribune, Talarico allegedly voted in five elections using his parents’ address after he purchased a home of his own nearby. He reportedly bought the home in June 2022 but did not update his voter registration address until September 2024, according to Travis County records reviewed by the news organizations.
The timing is particularly awkward because Talarico spent months publicly accusing Ken Paxton of voter fraud for allegedly voting from the wrong address. Paxton fired back, saying Talarico “blatantly committed election fraud showing a complete disregard for Texas residency requirements.” Talarico’s campaign called it a deflection attempt, and the full picture of the residency dispute remains contested. But the optics of lecturing your opponent about election law while your own registration is under a microscope are not great.
Talarico’s campaign declined to answer questions from the news organizations about his residency and voting history, including when he actually began living in the home he owns.
What Texas History Actually Says About Democrat Hopes
Democrats have been here before. Beto O’Rourke came within three points of Ted Cruz in 2018 and the national media spent months treating Texas as a toss-up. O’Rourke ran for governor in 2022 and lost by eleven points. In 2024, Donald Trump carried Texas by nearly fourteen points, even as some polls showed the race within five.
A recent Texas Southern University poll did show Talarico leading Paxton by two percentage points among likely voters — 47 percent to 45 percent — with a margin of error of 2.83 points. That’s the third survey in a row showing Talarico with a narrow edge. But Crockett’s skepticism about Texas polling isn’t unfounded. The state has a long track record of producing surveys that flatter Democrats and then delivering landslides for Republicans on election night.
And Paxton has something Talarico doesn’t: President Donald Trump’s endorsement. Trump backed Paxton in the Republican primary runoff against longtime incumbent Senator John Cornyn (R-TX), and Paxton won. That endorsement carries real weight with Texas Republican voters, and Paxton will lean on it hard through November.
The money picture is genuinely lopsided in Talarico’s favor at the candidate level. Federal Election Commission records through June 30 show Talarico’s campaign raised $68.6 million and held $21.5 million in cash. Paxton’s principal committee raised $9.2 million and held about $1.8 million. But Crockett’s point was never about Talarico’s personal fundraising. It was about the national party committees — the NRSC and the DSCC — and neither one is writing big checks for Texas right now.
When party committees pull back, it usually means their internal data matches their public indifference. Both the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Democrat Senatorial Campaign Committee employ professional pollsters and field operatives who track these races constantly. If they’re parking their money in Georgia and North Carolina instead, that tells the story their spokespeople won’t.
Crockett, who labeled her primary loss a “racist race” and has repeatedly declined fellow Democrats’ calls to campaign for Talarico, is not exactly a neutral observer. But her read on the money is the same read any honest political analyst would give. Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1988. The structural advantages Republicans hold in that state don’t evaporate because a seminarian with a progressive theology and a government healthcare pitch raised $68 million and got favorable numbers in a couple of polls.
Democrats want to believe this cycle is different. Their own people aren’t so sure.
Sources: Breitbart News; NBC News/Sahil Kapur (X); ProPublica; The Texas Tribune; Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center; Federal Election Commission records; KWTX; The Blaze; PJ Media; RedState; Daily Wire