Chuck Schumer’s grand plan slammed into a roadblock no one saw coming.
Democrats assumed this seat was locked down. They were wrong.
And now three consecutive polls from this supposedly “safe” blue state are looking like something that could give the Left a very bad Election Night.
Three Polls in a Row Say the Same Thing
Former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya, running as the Republican nominee for the open US Senate seat in Minnesota, sits within a single percentage point of Democrat Peggy Flanagan in the latest InsiderAdvantage survey.
The poll, which covered 1,200 likely voters September 28-29, put Flanagan at 46 percent and Tafoya at 45 percent — a gap that falls well inside the poll’s 2.95 percent margin of error.
That result did not arrive in isolation. A Co/Efficient poll had Flanagan up by just one point, 43 to 42. Before that, a KSTP 5 and SurveyAmerica poll from mid-September had the two candidates knotted at 42-42.
Three polls. Three consecutive results within one point. At some stage, the polling stops being a fluke and starts being a trend.
InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery called the numbers “unusual in that it goes against many of the trends we are seeing in other Senate contests.” His explanation pointed to the declining popularity of outgoing Governor Tim Walz (D) and what he described as “the growing evidence of fraud in the state” taking a toll on the Democrat nominee.
He added: “We are a ways out and Minnesota has not been friendly to GOP candidates, so this could change. But for the moment the race appears a tossup.”
Towery’s internal numbers carry an additional detail that ought to worry Flanagan’s campaign. “Tafoya does extremely well with men and Flanagan is losing every age group other than the youngest of voters, who in the poll have a significant ‘enthusiasm about voting’ gap versus other age groups who are more enthusiastic,” the pollster noted. When a Democrat is losing almost every age bracket in a blue state, that is not a normal mid-cycle story.
What Tafoya Is Actually Running On
Tafoya spent years as a top sideline reporter for NBC Sports and ESPN, and she left that world because she believed Minnesota’s political leadership had failed the state. Her campaign centers on ending the widespread fraud that burned through Minnesota taxpayers under Democrat stewardship, continuing the crackdown on illegal aliens, and cutting costs for middle-class families who have watched their standard of living erode under one-party Democrat rule in the state.
Her opponent is Flanagan, the sitting Lieutenant Governor, who carries the baggage of the Walz administration straight into the general election. Flanagan and Tafoya compete to fill the seat left open by outgoing US Senator Tina Smith (D-MN), who chose not to seek a second full term.
A Tafoya victory would put a Republican in that seat for the first time since Norm Coleman left office in January 2009, an 18-year drought for the GOP in Minnesota Senate races.
That context is part of why Democrats rated this race safely in their column entering the cycle. The Cook Political Report still calls it “likely Democrat.” But the RealClearPolitics polling average recently moved the race from “Leans Dem” to “Toss Up” — and few in Washington, DC saw that coming.
The race has received relatively little national press attention. Coverage gravitating toward the Texas Senate contest between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton crowded Minnesota out of the conversation. But the numbers have started breaking through anyway.
When Even the Establishment Has to Notice
Townhall columnist and GOP strategist Dustin Grage flagged the streak on X, writing “BREAKING: For the THIRD straight poll, the Minnesota U.S. Senate race is within a single point.” The post listed out all three surveys side by side for anyone who missed the pattern developing.
Scott Jennings, the establishment Republican commentator who has reinvented himself as a Trump defender on CNN after years of working for and praising anti-Trump figures, spotted the three-poll run and posted on X: “Live ball there it seems.”
That was his entire comment. Terse, but the acknowledgment alone signals that the race is no longer something serious political observers can pretend not to see.
And Center for American Progress chief Neera Tanden weighed in too, saying the numbers were “kinda worrying” for Democrats. When the head of a major left-wing institution publicly admits concern about a race in Minnesota, the race is genuinely close.
None of that changes the underlying structural reality. Minnesota has not sent a Republican to the US Senate since 2002. The state trended Democrat across most of the 2024 cycle, even as Trump narrowed the margins considerably. Democrats retain a generic ballot advantage in most statewide modeling, and the youngest voters in the InsiderAdvantage poll break hard for Flanagan with above-average enthusiasm. Those factors do not disappear.
But Tafoya’s profile creates a legitimate path. She runs well with men across age groups. Flanagan bleeds support in nearly every other demographic bracket the poll tested. The fraud scandal hanging over the Walz years does not resolve before Election Day.
And Republicans nationwide are investing in a broader Senate map than many expected.
Tafoya herself responded to the latest polling on X: “Our race is in play!” That is not bravado at this point. Three consecutive polls, all within the margin of error, say exactly the same thing. Minnesota Democrats counted on coasting. They no longer have that luxury.
The question for the next five weeks is whether the structural lean of the state reasserts itself, or whether Tafoya’s campaign and the political environment in Minnesota have genuinely scrambled the math. Walz’s approval numbers have deteriorated.
The welfare fraud story embedded itself deeply into the state’s political consciousness. And Flanagan, whatever her strengths, cannot walk away from her record as the number two official in an administration voters associate with both.
Races like this one do not always produce upsets. But three polls in a row do not lie, and Democrats who assumed Minnesota was settled are now watching a number they cannot explain away with a single bad survey.
If the trend holds, November gets complicated in a state that was never supposed to require this kind of attention.
Source: Mediaite, “Republican Senate Candidate In Deep Blue State In Striking Distance of Major Upset, Recent Polls Show,” Sean James, September 30, 2026