The Bush family never forgave Donald Trump for taking their party away.
They stewed through three elections. Now the midterms are here, and Texas is up for grabs.
And one member of the dynasty just made a move that would have been unthinkable in his father’s house.
A Bush Brother Walks Across the Aisle
Neil Bush, younger brother of former President George W Bush and son of former President George HW Bush, cast an early ballot for Democrat James Talarico in the Texas Senate race.
He didn’t keep it quiet, either. Bush posted a lengthy statement on Facebook announcing the vote, and he went after Republican nominee Ken Paxton and President Trump in the same breath.
“I voted early today, and I voted for James Talarico for the United States Senate,” Bush wrote.
His main beef with Paxton goes back to December 2020. That’s when the Texas Attorney General asked the US Supreme Court to toss out results in four battleground states. Bush called that effort “an affront to our democratic institutions and the peaceful transfer of power.”
Millions of Americans saw it differently. Paxton argued that officials in other states rewrote voting rules on the fly under cover of COVID, and a big chunk of the country still has questions about how that election ran. The Supreme Court turned the case away on standing and never touched the merits.
Bush then turned his guns on the President himself.
“More broadly, I believe Donald Trump and those who have enabled him have done enormous damage to the Republican Party,” he wrote.
And he wrapped it all up by gushing over Talarico, a man he admits he has never met. Bush praised the Democrat’s “integrity, civility, humility, and a willingness to listen to those with whom he disagrees.”
That’s a lot of character testimony for somebody you only know from television. But okay.
The Family Business Has a New Client
Neil isn’t freelancing. Barbara Bush, one of George W Bush’s twin daughters, gave $2,500 in September to Lone Star Rising PAC, the main outside group propping up Talarico, according to federal campaign finance records.
Her father never endorsed Trump in any of his three White House runs. So the apple didn’t fall far from the ranch.
Older readers may remember Neil’s name from a different set of headlines. Federal regulators found he had conflicts of interest as a director of Silverado Savings and Loan, the Colorado thrift that went under in 1988 and left taxpayers holding a bill north of a billion dollars. He paid a settlement and moved on. Funny where the lectures about accountability come from these days.
Cornyn Keeps His Checkbook in the Drawer
The Bush crossover lands on top of a bigger headache for Paxton. The Republican establishment never wanted him, and it still acts like it.
Paxton knocked off incumbent US Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) in a May runoff after Trump endorsed him late in the race. Cornyn co-sponsored a 2018 Senate bill that offered a path to citizenship for 1.8 million so-called Dreamers, which is amnesty with a nicer name tag. He also led Senate negotiations on the 2022 gun control package Joe Biden signed into law.
Now Cornyn, one of the biggest money-raisers in the Senate GOP, won’t lift a finger for the man who beat him. “Paxton’s a poor campaigner,” Cornyn told the Texas Tribune. He told Semafor that Trump “can spend his money.”
The National Republican Senatorial Committee left Texas off its list of eight battleground races this summer, according to Axios. The super PAC tied to Senate Majority Leader John Thune skipped Texas in its first round of ad reservations, too.
To be fair, Thune did headline a Paxton fundraiser in July. But showing up for a photo line costs nothing. TV time costs millions, and Senate GOP leaders told everyone they planned to spend it in other states.
So the MAGA side filled the hole. Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc, put $10 million behind Paxton. Elon Musk sent another $10 million to Lone Star Liberty PAC and spent more through his own America PAC.
They had plenty of ground to make up. Talarico had raised $72 million to Paxton’s $16.8 million as of early September. A recent University of Texas poll put Talarico ahead 50% to 47%.
Now ask yourself how much of that gap comes down to Paxton, and how much comes down to Republican donors who sat on their hands on purpose.
Democrats Bury the Hatchet. Republican Insiders Sharpen It.
Look at Michigan for a minute.
Chuck Schumer and the Democrat establishment threw their weight behind US Representative Haley Stevens (D-MI) in the Senate primary. They wanted to stop Abdul El-Sayed, a Medicare for All progressive they openly feared was too far left to win.
El-Sayed beat them anyway. And Stevens turned around and endorsed him. The party machinery that spent the summer trying to sink him lined up behind him within days.
Democrats lose a primary and close ranks. Republican insiders lose one and go raise money for somebody else.
The Real Target Isn’t in Texas
So what does the Bush wing actually want here?
Start with the record. George W Bush pushed a sweeping amnesty bill in 2006 and 2007 until furious voters killed it. His administration ushered Communist China into the World Trade Organization in 2001 and watched American factory towns hollow out. He launched the Iraq War. And the GOP got wiped out in 2006 and again in 2008, paving the road for Barack Obama.
Donald Trump ran against every bit of that. JD Vance, the obvious America First heir for 2028, built his whole political identity on rejecting it.
But a sitting Vice President with a winning midterm map behind him is awfully hard to beat in a primary. One who spent 2026 watching Trump-backed candidates fall? That’s a different animal. The establishment pitch practically writes itself. MAGA can’t win general elections, so hand the keys back to the grown-ups.
Now, not every Republican who wrings his hands about Paxton belongs to some grand scheme. Paxton carries baggage. The Texas House impeached him in 2023, and the Texas Senate acquitted him. Some donors simply don’t like him.
But the pattern is hard to miss. Cornyn’s money goes elsewhere. Party committees leave Texas off the board. And members of a former President’s family publicly back the Democrat.
Neil Bush says he voted on character. Fine. The people who want the party back would love for voters to believe that’s all this is.
And if Texas flips, nobody in that crowd will blame the Republicans who sat on their wallets. They’ll blame Trump, and they’ll aim that blame straight at Vance in 2028.
Sources: Mediaite; The Texas Tribune; Axios; Washington Examiner; CNN; Daily Wire; States Newsroom; Reuters via Honolulu Star-Advertiser; Associated Press; Michigan Public; Federal Election Commission records