Minnesota hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1972.
Democrats treat the state like a family heirloom. But something is shifting under their feet.
And one of the best-known number crunchers on network television just told Democrats what he sees coming.
NBC’s Map Man Delivered News Democrats Didn’t Want to Hear
Steve Kornacki doesn’t do cable shouting matches. He stands at a giant touchscreen, taps on counties, and tells viewers what the numbers say.
So when NBC News’ chief data analyst walks onto the Today set and warns that a blue state looks shaky for Democrats, folks inside the Democrat Party tend to sit up straight.
Kornacki broke down Minnesota’s Senate race with co-host Savannah Guthrie in a recent segment. The open-seat contest pits Republican Michele Tafoya, the longtime NFL sideline reporter turned candidate, against Democrat Lt Gov Peggy Flanagan.
“Relatively close here for Republicans, they’ve been trying for decades to flip Minnesota,” Kornacki said, gesturing at the monitor behind him.
Then he went straight to the reason Republicans like their odds.
“What they think is working in their favor here is there’s a state scandal there about medicaid fraud,” Kornacki told viewers.
He added that “The governor, Tim Walz, didn’t run for reelection because of it,” and reminded everyone that the Democrat on the ballot served as Walz’s own lieutenant governor.
Kornacki summed up the Tafoya campaign’s pitch to voters this way: “Look, if you’re upset about that scandal, don’t vote for the lieutenant governor.”
And then came the line that probably ruined somebody’s coffee at Democrat headquarters in St Paul.
“There does seem to be a tide within the state that might be working against Democrats,” Kornacki said.
A $9 Billion Mess Landed Right on Flanagan’s Doorstep
Here’s the backstory Democrats would love to bury.
Federal authorities allege that fraudsters ran what they called an “industrial scale” scheme that drained roughly $9 billion from government programs. According to the feds, the alleged theft hit Medicaid, housing assistance, and pandemic-era relief programs, and it all unfolded while Tim Walz ran the state.
That’s the same Tim Walz whom Kamala Harris picked as her running mate in 2024. Voters across the country got a long look at him that year. Minnesotans got a much longer one.
Walz decided against seeking another term. Kornacki tied that decision directly to the scandal.
But Flanagan can’t walk away so easily. She sat one desk over from Walz for the whole stretch, and Tafoya has made sure voters know it.
“There has been historic fraud under this administration, where Peggy Flanagan, my opponent, has been the second-in-charge in this state,” Tafoya told Fox News Digital.
Flanagan’s camp has a different game plan. Her team keeps trying to turn the race into a referendum on President Trump instead of the mess back home.
“Michele Tafoya would be nothing but a loyal soldier to Donald Trump,” Flanagan campaign spokesperson Lexi Byler told Newsweek.
Tafoya swatted that one away during their debate. “Peggy, Donald Trump isn’t on the ballot. You and I are on the ballot,” she told Flanagan, according to Newsweek.
It’s a fair point, and an awkward one for Democrats. A party that has run Minnesota for years would rather talk about anybody other than itself.
The Polls Look Nothing Like a Safe Blue Seat
Kornacki didn’t cite a specific survey on air. He didn’t need to.
The RealClearPolitics average gives Flanagan only about a two-point edge, according to Mediaite. A Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll put Flanagan at 47 percent and Tafoya at 43 percent. KSTP/SurveyUSA found a 45-42 race.
And an InsiderAdvantage survey of likely voters had the two separated by a single point, 46 to 45.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan forecaster, moved the race from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic, Newsweek reported. Fox News made the same shift in its Power Rankings.
None of that adds up to a Republican win. Flanagan still leads in nearly every poll.
But a four-point race in a state Harris carried in 2024 is not where Democrats expected to spend their October. Kornacki himself noted Minnesota went for Harris over President Trump two years ago.
Here’s the strange part. MPR News reported that the race has drawn little national money despite the tight numbers. Both parties’ Washington operations seem to have looked at Minnesota and shrugged.
That may turn out to be a costly bit of inattention for somebody.
Why One Blue State Has Washington Paying Attention
There’s a bigger lesson buried in all of this, and it goes beyond one Senate seat.
Democrats love to sell voters on bigger programs, more spending, and more money flowing out of state capitals. Every new program comes with a promise that government will spend the cash wisely.
But every dollar the government collects is a dollar it took out of somebody’s paycheck first. And the bigger the pile gets, the more tempting a target it becomes for anyone looking to grab a handful.
Minnesota taxpayers now have to ask who was minding the store while billions of dollars allegedly walked out the door. That question doesn’t go away just because Democrats keep shouting “Trump.”
It’s the same move Democrats tried in plenty of other races. When the local record looks ugly, they nationalize everything and hope nobody reads the fine print.
Will it work this time? Hard to say. Polls are snapshots, not verdicts, and Minnesota Democrats have survived close calls before.
But Kornacki is no right-wing talk radio host. He works for NBC. When the network’s own data guru tells a national morning audience that a tide might be running against Democrats in Tim Walz’s home state, that tells you something about how the ground feels out there.
And it raises a question Democrats in Washington probably don’t want to answer out loud. If a seat in Minnesota needs defending, how many other “safe” seats suddenly need money, ads, and attention too?
For President Trump, the stakes are plain. Every Senate seat matters when it comes to confirming nominees and moving his agenda through a chamber that loves to stall.
Minnesotans will make the call in November. Whatever they decide, Democrats can no longer pretend the fraud scandal is a sideshow.
The voters noticed. So did Steve Kornacki.
Sources: Mediaite, “NBC’s Steve Kornacki Warns ‘Tide’ Seems to Be ‘Working Against Democrats’ in Blue State Senate Race”; Fox News, “Minnesota showdown: Michele Tafoya says Peggy Flanagan deserves a ‘pink slip,’ not a promotion”; Newsweek, “Minnesota Senate Race Deadlocked with Democrat and Republican, Poll Shows”; Newsweek, “Republicans Eye Historic Minnesota Senate Upset as Democrats Struggle”; Political Wire, Star Tribune/KARE 11, KSTP/SurveyUSA, and InsiderAdvantage poll reports; MPR News, “Minnesota US Senate race simmers as first debate nears”; Mediaite, “Minnesota GOP Senate Candidate Says ‘It’s Embarrassing’ To Be From the State”