Top Historian Says Donald Trump Is The 2024 Favorite

Photo by Gage Skidmore on Flickr

Democrats got some bad news about the upcoming election.

It was not something they expected to hear.

And Democrats just heard this doomsday prediction about 2024.

As Great American Daily reports:

The bad news keeps pouring in for Joe Biden and the Democrat Party.

There is no end in sight.

And Joe Biden got served a reality check about the 2024 election that will drive Democrats crazy.

Historian Niall Ferguson authored a column in The Spectator warning Democrats that Donald Trump’s return to the White House is more likely than anyone suspects.

Ferguson wrote that the Democrat strategy of waging lawfare against Trump to disqualify him in the minds of swing voters is likely to fail.

Soros-backed prosecutor Alvin Bragg indicted Trump on phony charges.

A jury in deep-blue Manhattan awarded E. Jean Carroll $5 million in damages after finding Trump liable on dubious charges of battery and defamation.

And Democrat prosecutors in Atlanta and Washington, D.C. are running witch hunts based on phony charges.

Democrats hoped that three indictments — all in Democrat strongholds handed down by Democrat prosecutors — and the Carroll civil case verdict would be enough to sink Trump.

But Ferguson wrote that multiple world leaders came back to win elections after their opponents tried to put them in jail.

“Yet the campaign of lawfare against Trump has already started to backfire. This should not surprise us. Consider eight recent cases around the world when a leading presidential candidate or likely prime minister was indicted. Some – Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi and Malaysia’s Anwar Ibrahim – engineered political comebacks after being barred from politics following a conviction or imprisonment. Others – South Africa’s Jacob Zuma and Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu – saw continued political success despite ongoing criminal cases against them,” Ferguson stated.

Democrats believe the indictments will propel Trump to the GOP nomination but cripple him in the general election.

Ferguson wrote that the history of presidential nominations suggests that frontrunners like Trump do end up their party’s standard bearer.

“Since 1972, the candidate who led in early polling won his or her party’s nomination in little more than half of competitive presidential primaries. This, however, is the Republicans we are talking about, not the Democrats. Early frontrunners have won Republican primaries in six out of eight competitive races since 1972, when the modern system of primaries was introduced. The two exceptions were John McCain in 2008 and Trump himself in 2016,” Ferguson added.

But if Democrats were hoping the indictments would bail them out they were forgetting one big fact.

And that is the economy.

Ferguson detailed how the Gallup poll shows the highest dissatisfaction with the economy since Ronald Reagan’s landslide victory over Jimmy Carter in 1980.

“Look at the Gallup poll on ‘satisfaction with the way things are going in the US’. That’s currently at the 1980 level, half what it was four years ago, before the pandemic. Gallup’s economic confidence index is deeply in negative territory, the opposite of where it was under Trump. And this is before any recession,” Ferguson continued.

Economists predict a recession hitting the U.S. economy in late 2023 and the last three presidents that ran in a recession — Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush — all lost their re-election bids.

This combination of factors is why Ferguson concluded his column by saying “a second Trump act is not just possible. It’s fast becoming my base case.”